California's 4th District
U.S. House · California
Eric Jones held the seat for Democrats, winning by 3.1 points over Mike Thompson.
Top-two primary
Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Other candidates' campaigns: Mike Thompson $5.5M.
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
The polls
- Poll with Jones ahead
- Poll with R ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jones | R | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Binder Research for Eric Jones's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 15–Oct 21 | 600 LV | 45 | — | — | — | — | B− | sfgate.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 21, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
No Republican was on the ballot, so the model gave the seat to Eric Jones without simulating it.
How the forecast works →