Arizona's 2nd District
U.S. House · Arizona
Eli Crane won re-election by 1.2 points over Jonathan Nez.
Source: Arizona Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Crane, against Nez | $4.9M | |
| HMPAgainst Crane | $1.4M | |
| Club for Growth ActionAgainst Nez | $818K | |
| Somos PACFor Nez, against Crane | $795.2K | |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUNDFor Crane, against Nez | $740.3K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Crane, against Nez | $652.2K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Crane | $501.5K | |
| Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PACAgainst Crane | $500K | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Crane | $400.5K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Nez | $289.9K | |
| AB PACFor Nez | $71K | |
| Our Voice Our Vote Arizona PACFor Nez | $58.3K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Nez ahead by 2.7. Crane won by 1.2: a 3.9-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Nez ahead
- Poll with Crane ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Nez | Crane | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 345 LV | 50 | 48 | D+2 | D+2.8 | +3.2 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| GBAO for Jonathan Nez's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 21–Aug 24 | 500 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | R+2.6 | −0.8 | C | politico.com ↗ |
| GBAO for Jonathan Nez's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 11–Jun 15 | 500 LV | 41 | 44 | R+3 | R+3.5 | −1.8 | C | drive.google.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Jonathan Nez
- 34%
- Eli Crane
- 66%
- Projected margin
- R+2.6
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeJonathan Nez (D)
Former president of the Navajo Nation (2019–2023) and nominee for this district in 2024
Also on the ballot: Curtis Goodwin (Libertarian), 1.8%; Write-in (Other party), 0.0%; Unofficial Write-in (Other party), 0.0%