Arizona's 1st District
U.S. House · Arizona
Amish Shah flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 6.9 points over Jay Feely.
Source: Arizona Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.For Feely, against Shah | $9.4M | |
| HMPAgainst Feely | $6.4M | |
| BOLD AmericaAgainst Shah | $1.7M | |
| AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PACFor Feely | $1.2M | |
| 314 Action FundAgainst Feely | $979.1K | |
| Guardrails AllianceAgainst Feely | $775K | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Feely | $755K | |
| Pro-Choice Majority ActionAgainst Shah | $695.1K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Shah | $652.9K | |
| AMERICAN MISSIONFor Feely | $616.4K | |
| America PACFor Feely | $518.9K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Shah | $388.6K | |
| THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER PACAgainst Shah | $363K | |
| PHYSICIAN VOICES UNITEDFor Shah | $243.3K |
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Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Shah ahead by 4.7. Shah won by 6.9: a 2.2-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Shah ahead
- Poll with Feely ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Shah | Feely | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keating Research, Inc. | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 500 LV | 49.4 | 45 | D+4.4 | D+4.8 | −2.5 | B− | keatingresearch.com ↗ |
| FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs | Oct 1–Oct 1 | 400 RV | 44.4 | 41.6 | D+2.8 | D+3.2 | −4.1 | — | s3.documentcloud.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 28, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Amish Shah
- 85%
- Jay Feely
- 15%
- Projected margin
- D+5.9
The candidates
Former state representative from the 5th district (2019–2024) and nominee for this district in 2024Jay Feely (R)
CBS Sports analyst and former Arizona Cardinals football player (previously ran in the 5th district)
Also on the ballot: Monica Alponte (Libertarian), 2.2%; Write-in (Other party), 0.1%; Unofficial Write-in (Other party), 0.0%; Dev Gupta (Independent), 0.0%; Gage Dylan Thunder (Other party), 0.0%