Arizona's 6th District
U.S. House · Arizona
JoAnna Mendoza flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 8.0 points over Juan Ciscomani.
Source: Arizona Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Ciscomani | $3.9M | |
| VoteVetsAgainst Ciscomani | $1.3M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.For Ciscomani, against Mendoza | $1.2M | |
| AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PACFor Ciscomani | $1.1M | |
| TOMORROW TOGETHERAgainst Ciscomani | $965.1K | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Ciscomani, against Mendoza | $850.9K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Mendoza | $556.2K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Ciscomani | $534.6K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Mendoza | $511.8K | |
| America PACFor Ciscomani | $502.2K | |
| SD 2026For Mendoza | $418.2K | |
| SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education)For Mendoza | $277.3K | |
| Planned Parenthood VotesFor Mendoza | $225.2K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Mendoza ahead by 0.7. Mendoza won by 8.0: a 7.3-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Mendoza ahead
- Poll with Ciscomani ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Mendoza | Ciscomani | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jun 8–Jun 11 | 500 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 | D+0.6 | −6.0 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives for AmericaR-sponsored | Mar 12–Mar 14 | 400 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+9.5 | −5.0 | B+ | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 581 RV | 42 | 41 | D+1 | D+2.8 | −7.0 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Jun 11, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- JoAnna Mendoza
- 70%
- Juan Ciscomani
- 30%
- Projected margin
- D+3.1
The candidates
Former veteran services representative for U.S. Representative Tom O'HalleranJuan Ciscomani (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Jereme Peters (Libertarian), 1.3%; Gary Swing (Green), 0.9%; Write-in (Other party), 0.1%; Unassigned Write-in (Other party), 0.0%; Michael Dorland (Independent), 0.0%