Pennsylvania Governor
Governor · Pennsylvania
Josh Shapiro won re-election by 22.1 points over Stacy Garrity.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 2:10 AM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Shapiro compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 67 of 67 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Lackawanna, +30.0 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 59 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Shapiro ahead by 25.2. Shapiro won by 22.1: a 3.1-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Shapiro ahead
- Poll with Garrity ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Shapiro | Garrity | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | Oct 30–Nov 1 | 450 LV | 59 | 34 | D+25 | D+26.3 | +2.9 | A | researchco.ca ↗ |
| ActiVote | Oct 1–Oct 21 | 400 LV | 61.5 | 38.5 | D+23 | D+24.0 | +0.9 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| Franklin & Marshall CollegeMain question | Oct 7–Oct 18 | 808 RV | 54 | 33 | D+21 | — | −1.1 | B− | fandmpoll.org ↗ |
| Franklin & Marshall CollegeMain question · in average | Oct 7–Oct 18 | — LV | 59 | 36 | D+23 | D+20.9 | +0.9 | B− | fandmpoll.org ↗ |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | Oct 5–Oct 11 | 628 RV | 57.68 | 27.55 | D+30.1 | D+28.0 | +8.0 | — | pennlive.com ↗ |
| Quinnipiac University | Oct 1–Oct 5 | 1,159 LV | 59 | 34 | D+25 | D+25.8 | +2.9 | A− | poll.qu.edu ↗ |
| Z to A Research for Rust Belt RisingD-sponsored | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 630 LV | 53 | 34 | D+19 | — | −3.1 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Sep 22–Sep 30 | 700 LV | 52 | 31 | D+21 | D+23.6 | −1.1 | B | x.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University for The Philadelphia InquirerMain question · in average | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 615 LV | 58.41 | 37.65 | D+20.8 | — | −1.3 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University for The Philadelphia InquirerMain question | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 615 RV | 56.98 | 37.62 | D+19.4 | — | −2.7 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | Sep 16–Sep 22 | 624 RV | 55.14 | 27.72 | D+27.4 | — | +5.3 | — | pennlive.com ↗ |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Aug 17–Aug 23 | 501 RV | 50 | 25 | D+25 | — | +2.9 | B− | fandmpoll.org ↗ |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | Aug 18–Aug 22 | 711 LV | 56.38 | 25.19 | D+31.2 | — | +9.1 | — | pennlive.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University for The Philadelphia InquirerMain question · in average | Aug 17–Aug 21 | 760 LV | 54.75 | 38.69 | D+16.1 | — | −6.0 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| The New York Times/Siena University for The Philadelphia InquirerMain question | Aug 17–Aug 21 | 760 RV | 54.37 | 37.3 | D+17.1 | — | −5.0 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | Jul 17–Jul 24 | 630 LV | 53.38 | 28.11 | D+25.3 | — | +3.2 | — | pennlive.com ↗ |
| Quinnipiac University | Jul 9–Jul 13 | 895 RV | 53 | 40 | D+13 | — | −9.1 | A− | poll.qu.edu ↗ |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | Jun 18–Jun 25 | 644 LV | 53.67 | 29.29 | D+24.4 | — | +2.3 | — | bravogroup.us ↗ |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Jun 8–Jun 14 | 546 RV | 50 | 28 | D+22 | — | −0.1 | B− | fandmpoll.org ↗ |
| MAD Global Strategy for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future | Jun 9–Jun 11 | 600 LV | 48 | 31 | D+17 | — | −5.1 | — | susqcoindy.com ↗ |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | May 20–May 24 | 684 LV | 53.38 | 28.81 | D+24.6 | — | +2.5 | — | pennlive.com ↗ |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Mar 18–Mar 29 | 700 LV | 58 | 36 | D+22 | — | −0.1 | B | x.com ↗ |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Feb 18–Mar 1 | 834 RV | 48 | 28 | D+20 | — | −2.1 | B− | fandmpoll.org ↗ |
| Quinnipiac University | Feb 19–Feb 23 | 836 RV | 55 | 37 | D+18 | — | −4.1 | A− | poll.qu.edu ↗ |
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 25–Sep 29 | 1,579 RV | 55 | 39 | D+16 | — | −6.1 | A− | poll.qu.edu ↗ |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Sep 22–Sep 28 | 700 LV | 54 | 36 | D+18 | — | −4.1 | B | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Josh Shapiro
- >99%
- Stacy Garrity
- <1%
- Projected margin
- D+24.5
The candidates
Incumbent governor (2023–present)Stacy Garrity (R)
Pennsylvania state treasurer (2021–present)
Also on the ballot: Ken Krawchuk (Libertarian), 1.3%
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Shapiro.