Nevada Governor
Governor · Nevada
Aaron Ford flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 7.7 points over Joe Lombardo.
Source: Nevada Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Ford compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 15 of 17 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Clark, +12.9 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 9 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Lombardo ahead by 0.5. Ford won by 7.7: a 8.2-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Ford ahead
- Poll with Lombardo ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ford | Lombardo | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | Oct 26–Oct 28 | 487 LV | 47 | 47 | Even | R+0.3 | −7.7 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies for A More Affordable NevadaD-sponsored | Oct 20–Oct 25 | 950 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | D+0.2 | −3.7 | B | hub.nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD-sponsored | Sep 26–Sep 30 | 565 LV | 42 | 43 | R+1 | R+9.1 | −8.7 | B− | concordpublicopinionpartners.org ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insightsfield: Aaron Ford, Danielle Ford, Lombardo | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | 37 | 38 | R+1 | — | −8.7 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insightsfield: Aaron Ford, Danielle Ford, Lombardo · in average | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 708 LV | 40 | 42 | R+2 | R+2.7 | −9.7 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for KLAS-TV Las Vegas | Sep 5–Sep 8 | 680 LV | 44.16 | 42.05 | D+2.1 | D+3.8 | −5.6 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Tarrance Group for Better Nevada PAC, Republican Governors AssociationR-sponsored | Jul 25–Jul 29 | 550 LV | 43 | 50 | R+7 | R+0.6 | −14.7 | A+ | thenevadaindependent.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Democratic Governors AssociationD-sponsored | Jul 15–Jul 16 | 558 LV | 44 | 44 | Even | — | −7.7 | B+ | thenevadaindependent.com ↗ |
| Grassroots Targeting for Better Nevada PAC, Republican Governors AssociationR-sponsored | Jul 8–Jul 16 | 2,500 LV | 40 | 52 | R+12 | — | −19.7 | — | thenevadaindependent.com ↗ |
| Public Opinion Strategies for Republican Governors AssociationR-sponsored | Jun 27–Jun 29 | 600 LV | 42 | 51 | R+9 | — | −16.7 | B | thenevadaindependent.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Aaron Ford's campaignD-sponsored | May 5–May 11 | 700 LV | 42 | 45 | R+3 | — | −10.7 | C | x.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Mar 10–Mar 13 | 845 RV | 38 | 39 | R+1 | — | −8.7 | A | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for The Majority InstituteD-sponsored | Feb 11–Feb 17 | 800 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 | — | −10.7 | — | crookedmedia.substack.com ↗ |
| Emerson College | Nov 16–Nov 18 | 800 RV | 41.1 | 41.1 | Even | — | −7.7 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Oct 7–Oct 13 | 766 RV | 37 | 40 | R+3 | — | −10.7 | A | ktnv.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 28, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Aaron Ford
- 45%
- Joe Lombardo
- 55%
- Projected margin
- R+0.8
The candidates
Nevada attorney general (2019–present)Joe Lombardo (R)
Incumbent governor (2023–present)
Also on the ballot: Danielle Ford (Independent), 2.9%
Also on this ballot here
| Lieutenant Governor | D+13.7 |
| Attorney General | D+15.4 |
| Secretary of State | D+18.0 |
| Treasurer | D+12.5 |
| Comptroller | D+11.3 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: Nevada Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET