U.S. Senate in Illinois
U.S. Senate · Illinois
Juliana Stratton held the seat for Democrats, winning by 24.3 points over Don Tracy.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Stratton compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 95 of 102 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Cook, +19.6 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 94 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| FairshakeAgainst Stratton | $9.9M | |
| ILLINOIS FUTURE PACFor Stratton | $8.8M | |
| DLGA PACFor Stratton | $221.7K | |
| Progressive Values IllinoisAgainst Stratton | $197.7K | |
| The Impact Fund (FEC)Against Stratton | $171.1K | |
| Protect ProgressAgainst Stratton | $119.6K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Stratton ahead by 12.8. Stratton won by 24.3: a 11.5-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Stratton ahead
- Poll with Tracy ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Stratton | Tracy | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | Oct 31–Nov 2 | 450 LV | 53 | 41 | D+12 | D+12.3 | −12.3 | A | researchco.ca ↗ |
| ActiVote | Oct 21–Oct 30 | 400 LV | 55.6 | 44.4 | D+11.2 | D+12.1 | −13.1 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| ActiVote | Sep 26–Oct 20 | 400 LV | 58.5 | 41.5 | D+17 | D+18.0 | −7.3 | A− | activote.net ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly | Sep 30–Oct 1 | 569 RV | 49 | 36 | D+13 | D+14.8 | −11.3 | B+ | cnwmedia.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 2, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Juliana Stratton
- 99%
- Don Tracy
- 1%
- Projected margin
- D+15.7
The candidates
Lieutenant governor of Illinois (2019–present)Don Tracy (R)
Former chair of the Illinois Republican Party (2021–2024), former member of the Illinois Gaming Board (2015–2019), candidate for lieutenant governor in 2010, and brother-in-law of state Senator Jil Tracy
Also on the ballot: Whitfield Harrington Jr. (Other party), 1.6%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | D+23.5 |
| Attorney General | D+23.2 |
| Secretary of State | D+29.5 |
| Treasurer | D+24.3 |
| Comptroller | D+22.1 |
Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Stratton.