Wisconsin's 3rd District
U.S. House · Wisconsin
Rebecca Cooke flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 6.6 points over Derrick Van Orden.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Orden | $8.9M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.Against Cooke | $4.9M | |
| LCV Victory FundFor Cooke, against Orden | $1.9M | |
| AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PACFor Orden | $1M | |
| TOMORROW TOGETHERAgainst Orden | $880.9K | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Orden | $746.6K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Orden, against Cooke | $660.9K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Cooke | $615.7K | |
| One For All CommitteeFor Cooke | $400K | |
| America PACAgainst Cooke | $394.6K | |
| EDW Action FundAgainst Orden | $299.6K | |
| AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC.For Orden | $284.9K | |
| For Our FutureFor Cooke | $263.6K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Cooke ahead by 1.8. Cooke won by 6.6: a 4.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Cooke ahead
- Poll with Orden ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cooke | Orden | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jun 20–Jun 25 | 535 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | D+1.1 | −2.6 | D | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Rebecca Cooke's campaignD-sponsored | May 26–May 31 | 500 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | D+4.5 | −2.6 | C | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Rebecca Cooke's campaignD-sponsored | Feb 12–Feb 17 | 500 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 | D+2.2 | −5.6 | C | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 609 RV | 44 | 42 | D+2 | D+3.9 | −4.6 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Jun 25, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Rebecca Cooke
- 63%
- Derrick Van Orden
- 37%
- Projected margin
- D+2.0
The candidates
Former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation board member and nominee for this district in 2024Derrick Van Orden (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Alexander Valiensi Kent (Independent), 1.2%; Rustin Provance (Independent), 0.6%
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Cooke.