Tennessee's 5th District
U.S. House · Tennessee
Charlie Hatcher held the seat for Republicans, winning by 4.9 points over Chaz Molder.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Hatcher, against Molder | $459.6K | |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUNDAgainst Hatcher | $273K | |
| TENNESSEE RISE PACFor Molder | $100K | |
| The Time Is Now PACFor Molder, against Hatcher | $92.5K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Molder | $75.1K | |
| THE PROGRESS FUNDFor Molder | $33.7K | |
| THREE STAR PACFor Molder | $24.8K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Hatcher ahead by 6.6. Hatcher won by 4.9: a 1.7-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Molder ahead
- Poll with Hatcher ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Molder | Hatcher | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research for Chaz Molder's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 552 LV | 41 | 46 | R+5 | R+6.4 | −0.1 | C | tennessean.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Chaz Molder's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 19–Aug 24 | 500 LV | 40 | 48 | R+8 | R+8.8 | −3.1 | C | drive.google.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Chaz Molder
- 10%
- Charlie Hatcher
- 90%
- Projected margin
- R+7.7
The candidates
Former Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–2025)Chaz Molder (D)
Mayor of Columbia (2018–present)
Also on the ballot: James A. Johnson (Independent), 1.2%; Micheál O'Leary (Independent), 0.4%
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Hatcher.