Pennsylvania's 8th District
U.S. House · Pennsylvania
Paige Cognetti flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 8.9 points over Rob Bresnahan.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Bresnahan | $4.8M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.Against Cognetti | $2.8M | |
| Giffords PACAgainst Bresnahan | $887.1K | |
| AB PACFor Cognetti, against Bresnahan | $884.7K | |
| TOMORROW TOGETHERAgainst Bresnahan | $843.9K | |
| America PACFor Bresnahan, against Cognetti | $677.5K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Bresnahan, against Cognetti | $648.7K | |
| CFFE PACFor Cognetti | $541.2K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Cognetti | $502.3K | |
| REAL RESULTS PACAgainst Cognetti | $382K | |
| AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC.For Bresnahan | $359.6K | |
| The Governing Majority FundAgainst Cognetti | $275K | |
| NRDC Action VotesAgainst Bresnahan | $250K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Cognetti ahead by 4.1. Cognetti won by 8.9: a 4.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Cognetti ahead
- Poll with Bresnahan ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cognetti | Bresnahan | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University for The Philadelphia Inquirer | Oct 16–Oct 22 | 402 LV | 50.53 | 46.48 | D+4.1 | D+3.6 | −4.8 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 396 LV | 52 | 48 | D+4 | D+4.8 | −4.9 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 400 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 | R+1.5 | −6.9 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Paige Cognetti's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 8–Jun 11 | 500 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | D+1.6 | −7.9 | C | paigeforpa.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Aug 27–Aug 28 | 615 RV | 45 | 43 | D+2 | D+3.9 | −6.9 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 22, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Paige Cognetti
- 74%
- Rob Bresnahan
- 26%
- Projected margin
- D+3.4
The candidates
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Cognetti.