Pennsylvania's 10th District
U.S. House · Pennsylvania
Janelle Stelson flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 10.1 points over Scott Perry.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Perry, against Stelson | $6.1M | |
| HMPAgainst Perry | $3.8M | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Perry | $1.3M | |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUNDFor Perry, against Stelson | $1.1M | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Perry | $1M | |
| CFFE PACFor Stelson | $864.6K | |
| Protect Freedom Political Action CommitteeFor Perry | $813.1K | |
| Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PACAgainst Perry | $500K | |
| UA Union Plumbers & Pipefitters Vote! PAC (United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing & Pipefitting Industry of the United States and Canada)Against Perry | $340.5K | |
| America PACAgainst Stelson | $330.2K | |
| Club for Growth ActionAgainst Stelson | $325.7K | |
| AB PACFor Stelson | $268.1K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Stelson | $221.9K | |
| COMMON SENSE FOR PAAgainst Stelson | $200K |
Show 6 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Perry ahead by 0.4. Stelson won by 10.1: a 10.5-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Stelson ahead
- Poll with Perry ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Stelson | Perry | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University for The Philadelphia Inquirer | Oct 16–Oct 22 | 404 LV | 47.65 | 48.03 | R+0.4 | R+0.9 | −10.5 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Oct 5–Oct 11 | 300 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 | D+1.7 | −7.1 | B | x.com ↗ |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 9–Sep 20 | 378 RV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | Even | −7.1 | B− | wgal.com ↗ |
| Normington, Petts & Associates for Janelle Stelson's campaignD-sponsored | Apr 20–Apr 23 | 400 RV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+4.7 | −4.1 | C+ | inquirer.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Republicans Against Perry | Nov 18–Nov 19 | 549 RV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | D+6.0 | −6.1 | B+ | pennlive.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jul 10–Jul 11 | 559 RV | 46 | 43 | D+3 | D+5.1 | −7.1 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 22, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Janelle Stelson
- 65%
- Scott Perry
- 35%
- Projected margin
- D+2.2
The candidates
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Stelson.