Ohio's 15th District
U.S. House · Ohio
Don Leonard flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 6.6 points over Mike Carey.
Source: Ohio Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.For Carey, against Leonard | $2.7M | |
| HMPAgainst Carey | $2.5M | |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PACFor Leonard, against Carey | $2.5M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Carey, against Leonard | $715.7K | |
| CFFE PACFor Leonard | $645.2K | |
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP)For Leonard, against Carey | $608.5K | |
| BUCKEYE PROSPERITY PACAgainst Leonard | $196.6K | |
| Conservatives for AmericaFor Carey | $100K | |
| FIRST PRINCIPLES DIGITALAgainst Leonard | $80K | |
| AB PACFor Leonard | $54.4K | |
| American Liberty Foundation PACFor Carey | $49.4K | |
| OUR HERITAGE MATTERSAgainst Carey | $27.2K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Carey ahead by 3.8. Leonard won by 6.6: a 10.4-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Leonard ahead
- Poll with Carey ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Leonard | Carey | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 9–Oct 12 | — LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | R+3.3 | −3.6 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 500 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | R+5.4 | −5.6 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for Don Leonard's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 6–Aug 9 | 401 LV | 37 | 41 | R+4 | R+10.8 | −10.6 | — | politico.com ↗ |
| Hart Research Associates for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jun 23–Jun 25 | 550 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5 | R+11.0 | −11.6 | — | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Don Leonard
- 33%
- Mike Carey
- 67%
- Projected margin
- R+2.4
The candidates
EducatorMike Carey (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Brennan Barrington (Libertarian), 2.8%; Samuel Ronan (Other party), 0.0%; Gary Josephson (Other party), 0.0%