Ohio's 10th District
U.S. House · Ohio
Kristina Knickerbocker flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 1.6 points over Mike Turner.
Source: Ohio Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPFor Knickerbocker, against Turner | $4.6M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.Against Knickerbocker | $3.2M | |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PACFor Knickerbocker, against Turner | $2.1M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Turner, against Knickerbocker | $722.9K | |
| INNOVATION OHIO PACAgainst Turner | $235K | |
| Women VoteFor Knickerbocker | $187.9K | |
| FUND FOR A STRONGER OHIOAgainst Knickerbocker | $165.6K | |
| Leaders We DeserveFor Knickerbocker | $161.7K | |
| AB PACFor Knickerbocker | $105.9K | |
| American Liberty Foundation PACFor Turner | $49.8K | |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOMFor Turner | $34.3K | |
| OUR HERITAGE MATTERSAgainst Turner | $26.3K | |
| Building TogetherAgainst Turner | $10.5K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Knickerbocker ahead by 1.2. Knickerbocker won by 1.6: a 0.4-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Knickerbocker ahead
- Poll with Turner ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Knickerbocker | Turner | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Oct 12–Oct 13 | 535 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+1.4 | +1.4 | — | dccc.org ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Kristina Knickerbocker's campaignD-sponsoredMain question · in average | Jul 20–Jul 23 | 700 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5 | R+7.5 | −6.6 | C | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Kristina Knickerbocker's campaignD-sponsoredfield: Knickerbocker, Turner | Jul 20–Jul 23 | 700 LV | 42 | 49 | R+7 | — | −8.6 | C | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| FM3 Research for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jul 6–Jul 12 | — LV | 41 | 48 | R+7 | R+10.9 | −8.6 | D | drive.google.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Kristina Knickerbocker
- 53%
- Mike Turner
- 47%
- Projected margin
- D+0.4
The candidates
U.S. Air Force veteranMike Turner (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Thomas McMasters (Libertarian), 2.9%