New York's 21st District
U.S. House · New York
Anthony Constantino held the seat for Republicans, winning by 1.9 points over Blake Gendebien.
Fusion voting
Source: New York State Board of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Constantino | $1.5M | |
| Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PACAgainst Constantino | $1.3M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.For Constantino, against Gendebien | $1.2M | |
| EDUCATORS UNITED FOR PUBLIC SCHOOLSFor Gendebien | $508.7K | |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PACAgainst Constantino | $499.1K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Constantino | $290.1K | |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOMAgainst Gendebien | $140K | |
| RP PACFor Gendebien, against Constantino | $123.9K | |
| AMERICA FIRST WARRIOR PACAgainst Constantino | $82.5K | |
| American Democracy ProjectFor Gendebien, against Constantino | $66.8K |
Show 2 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Constantino ahead by 2.5. Constantino won by 1.9: a 0.6-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Gendebien ahead
- Poll with Constantino ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gendebien | Constantino | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 12–Oct 13 | — LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | R+3.5 | −0.1 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| Siena College for Times Union, WAMC, WPTZ-NBC5 | Sep 30–Oct 6 | 496 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | D+1.1 | +5.9 | A | mynbc5.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Blake Gendebien's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 4 | 500 LV | 45 | 48 | R+3 | R+3.9 | −1.1 | C | nny360.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for The BenchD-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 10 | 557 RV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | R+6.7 | −3.1 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Blake Gendebien's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 30–Sep 2 | 500 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 | R+3.2 | −1.1 | C | politico.com ↗ |
| J.L. Partners | Aug 15–Aug 17 | 500 LV | 40 | 53 | R+13 | R+7.2 | −11.1 | C+ | nypost.com ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for WNYT-TV Albany | Aug 4–Aug 8 | 612 LV | 43 | 39 | D+4 | — | +5.9 | A | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Blake Gendebien's campaignD-sponsored | May 26–May 31 | 500 LV | 44 | 45 | R+1 | — | +0.9 | C | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Blake Gendebien
- 32%
- Anthony Constantino
- 68%
- Projected margin
- R+2.9