2026 election for New York's 17th District
U.S. House · New York
Cait Conley (D) won with 53.0% of the vote, defeating Mike Lawler (R) by 6.0 points, flipping a seat Republicans held.
Fusion voting
Source: New York State Board of Elections unofficial results; race call: civicAPIUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
The seat over time
D − R margin in this seat's races around 2026
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.For Lawler, against Conley | $5.7M | |
| HMPAgainst Lawler | $2.3M | |
| PROGRESSIVE CHAMPIONS PACAgainst Conley | $1.5M | |
| VoteVetsFor Conley | $1.1M | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Lawler | $1.1M | |
| Battleground New YorkFor Conley | $979.8K | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Lawler | $863.4K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Lawler, against Conley | $655.9K | |
| America PACFor Lawler, against Conley | $642.3K | |
| New Democrat MajorityFor Conley | $522.7K | |
| EDUCATORS UNITED FOR PUBLIC SCHOOLSFor Conley | $512.7K | |
| Center Forward Initiative Inc (CFI)For Lawler | $435K | |
| AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC.For Lawler | $288.8K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Conley ahead by 3.1. Conley won by 6.0: a 2.9-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Conley ahead
- Poll with Lawler ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Conley | Lawler | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates for Mike Lawler's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 400 LV | 47 | 50 | R+3 | D+3.2 | −9.0 | C− | nypost.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for PIX 11 | Sep 27–Sep 29 | 400 LV | 47.9 | 45.6 | D+2.3 | D+3.2 | −3.7 | A+ | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| co/efficient | Jul 20–Jul 22 | 1,292 LV | 45 | 50 | R+5 | R+0.1 | −11.0 | B+ | coefficient.org ↗ |
| FM3 Research for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jun 27–Jul 1 | 509 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+3.0 | 0.0 | D | NYT |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times poll listsUpdated Sep 30, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Cait Conley
- 84%
- Mike Lawler
- 16%
- Projected margin
- D+5.9
The candidates
Former senior advisor to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security AgencyMike Lawler (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.1%
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Conley.