2026 election for New York's 18th District
U.S. House · New York
Pat Ryan (D) won re-election with 62.9% of the vote, defeating Jacqueline Auringer (R) by 25.8 points.
Fusion voting
Source: New York State Board of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
The seat over time
D − R margin in this seat's races around 2026
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Source: FEC campaign filingsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Polls against the result
The final average had Ryan ahead by 17.8. Ryan won by 25.8: a 8.0-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Ryan ahead
- Poll with Auringer ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ryan | Auringer | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for Pat Ryan's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 29–Sep 30 | 561 RV | 52 | 35 | D+17 | D+17.9 | −8.8 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Pat Ryan's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | 53 | 39 | D+14 | D+13.8 | −11.8 | C | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times poll listsUpdated Sep 30, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Pat Ryan
- 99%
- Jacqueline Auringer
- 1%
- Projected margin
- D+17.5
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeJacqueline Auringer (R)
Businesswoman
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.1%