Kentucky's 6th District
U.S. House · Kentucky
Zach Dembo flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 9.4 points over Ralph Alvarado.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Alvarado, against Dembo | $5.1M | |
| Kentuckians Not CorruptionFor Dembo, against Alvarado | $2.3M | |
| HMPAgainst Alvarado | $1.6M | |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.Against Dembo | $653.6K | |
| In This Together PACAgainst Alvarado | $600K | |
| SERVANT-LEADER FUND, INC.For Dembo, against Alvarado | $587.5K | |
| Protect Freedom Political Action CommitteeFor Alvarado | $452.3K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Alvarado, against Dembo | $437.5K | |
| AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEFor Alvarado | $400K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Dembo | $266.4K | |
| VoteVetsFor Dembo | $235.9K | |
| AB PACFor Dembo | $79.7K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Dembo ahead by 4.9. Dembo won by 9.4: a 4.5-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Dembo ahead
- Poll with Alvarado ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Dembo | Alvarado | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 19–Oct 20 | — LV | 47 | 41 | D+6 | D+5.5 | −3.4 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| Change Research for Kentuckians Not CorruptionD-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 5 | 524 LV | 47 | 38 | D+9 | D+9.3 | −0.4 | B+ | fox56news.com ↗ |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Oct 2–Oct 5 | 606 LV | 46 | 40 | D+6 | D+5.1 | −3.4 | — | dccc.org ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for House Majority PACD-sponsoredMain question · in average | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 400 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | R+1.9 | −6.4 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for House Majority PACD-sponsoredfield: Dembo, Bowman, Lynch, Alvarado | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 400 LV | 46 | 40 | D+6 | — | −3.4 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| GQR for Zach Dembo's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 25–Sep 30 | 401 LV | 42 | 37 | D+5 | D+3.9 | −4.4 | C+ | kentuckylantern.com ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Aug 17–Aug 23 | — LV | 45 | 44 | D+1 | R+2.9 | −8.4 | B+ | ms.now ↗ |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Jul 29–Jul 30 | 474 LV | 47 | 47 | Even | — | −9.4 | — | kentucky.com ↗ |
| GQR for Zach Dembo's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 24–Jun 28 | — LV | 39 | 42 | R+3 | — | −12.4 | C+ | insideelections.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Zach Dembo's campaignD-sponsored | Apr 24–Apr 25 | 675 RV | 37 | 37 | Even | — | −9.4 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 20, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Zach Dembo
- 57%
- Ralph Alvarado
- 43%
- Projected margin
- D+1.1
The candidates
Former federal prosecutorRalph Alvarado (R)
Former Tennessee Commissioner of Health (2023–2025), former Kentucky state senator (2015–2023), and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2019
Also on the ballot: Jay J. Bowman (Independent), 2.5%; Pete Lynch (Other party), 1.5%
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Dembo.