Indiana's 5th District
U.S. House · Indiana
J. D. Ford flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 3.3 points over Victoria Spartz.
Source: Indiana Election Division unofficial results; race call: civicAPIUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PACAgainst Spartz | $2M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Spartz, against Ford | $1.2M | |
| Commonsense Hoosiers PACAgainst Spartz | $977.3K | |
| HOOSIER STATE VALUES PACFor Ford, against Spartz | $771.9K | |
| HMPAgainst Spartz | $336.1K | |
| RESTORATION OF AMERICA PACAgainst Ford | $99.6K | |
| Working AmericaFor Ford, against Spartz | $41.8K | |
| Indivisible Project Inc.For Ford | $1.9K | |
| GOA VICTORY FUNDFor Spartz | $1.4K |
Show 1 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Spartz ahead by 0.9. Ford won by 3.3: a 4.2-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Ford ahead
- Poll with Spartz ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ford | Spartz | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Oct 21–Oct 22 | 634 LV | 44.6 | 47.4 | R+2.8 | R+0.2 | −6.1 | — | indystar.com ↗ |
| Expedition Strategies for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 4 | — LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | R+4.5 | −4.3 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for J.D. Ford's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 16–Jul 20 | — LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | R+1.8 | −5.3 | C | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 22, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- J. D. Ford
- 20%
- Victoria Spartz
- 80%
- Projected margin
- R+5.0
The candidates
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Ford.