Idaho's 1st District
U.S. House · Idaho
Russ Fulcher won re-election by 35.5 points over Kaylee Peterson.
Source: Idaho Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Other candidates' campaigns: Sarah Zabel $272.3K.
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Source: FEC campaign filingsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Polls against the result
The final average had Fulcher ahead by 33.0. Fulcher won by 35.5: a 2.5-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Peterson ahead
- Poll with Fulcher ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Peterson | Fulcher | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC, Todd Achilles's campaign | Oct 21–Oct 22 | — LV | 26 | 52 | R+26 | R+33.2 | +9.5 | — | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaignMain question · in average | Jul 28–Jul 30 | — LV | 27 | 48 | R+21 | R+28.7 | +14.5 | B+ | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaignfield: Gomez, Zabel, Fulcher | Jul 28–Jul 30 | — LV | — | 46 | — | — | — | B+ | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for Sarah Zabel's campaign | Jul 7–Jul 14 | 480 LV | 35 | 45 | R+10 | R+11.1 | +25.5 | A | surveyusa.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 22, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Kaylee Peterson
- <1%
- Russ Fulcher
- >99%
- Projected margin
- R+33.6
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeKaylee Peterson (D)
Artisan jeweler and nominee for this district in 2022 and 2024Sarah Zabel (I)
Author and retired U.S. Air Force major general
Also on the ballot: Brendan Gomez (Constitution), 0.9%