Idaho's 2nd District
U.S. House · Idaho
Mike Simpson won re-election by 11.4 points over Ellie Gilbreath.
Source: Idaho Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Source: FEC campaign filingsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Polls against the result
The final average had Simpson ahead by 19.4. Simpson won by 11.4: a 8.0-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Gilbreath ahead
- Poll with Simpson ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gilbreath | Simpson | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC, Todd Achilles's campaign | Oct 21–Oct 22 | — LV | 31 | 46 | R+15 | R+19.4 | −3.6 | — | drive.google.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 22, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Ellie Gilbreath
- <1%
- Mike Simpson
- >99%
- Projected margin
- R+20.2
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeEllie Gilbreath (D)
Lawyer
Also on the ballot: Tripp Hutchinson (Independent), 3.5%; Emre Houser (Independent), 2.4%; Will Johanson (Libertarian), 2.2%