Wisconsin Governor
Governor · Wisconsin
David Crowley held the seat for Democrats, winning by 8.0 points over Tom Tiffany.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Crowley compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 71 of 72 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Milwaukee, +13.6 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 64 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Crowley ahead by 5.2. Crowley won by 8.0: a 2.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Crowley ahead
- Poll with Tiffany ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Crowley | Tiffany | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | Oct 30–Nov 1 | 450 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | D+4.7 | −3.0 | A | researchco.ca ↗ |
| Wick for League of American WorkersR-sponsored | Oct 19–Oct 23 | 1,213 LV | 47.7 | 44.6 | D+3.1 | D+6.6 | −4.9 | B− | wick.io ↗ |
| Marquette University Law SchoolMain question | Oct 14–Oct 22 | 818 RV | 49 | 46 | D+3 | — | −5.0 | A− | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
| Marquette University Law SchoolMain question · in average | Oct 14–Oct 22 | 668 LV | 53 | 46 | D+7 | D+6.1 | −1.0 | A− | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
| YouGov for CFC Action Fund, City Forward Collective | Sep 22–Oct 9 | 1,715 RV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | D+3.7 | −4.0 | B | cityforwardcollective.org ↗ |
| Z to A Research for Rust Belt RisingD-sponsored | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 662 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 | D+2.8 | −3.0 | — | x.com ↗ |
| Marquette University Law SchoolMain question · in average | Sep 16–Sep 23 | 692 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 | D+2.2 | −5.0 | A− | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
| Marquette University Law SchoolMain question | Sep 16–Sep 23 | 843 RV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | — | −7.0 | A− | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
| Marquette University Law SchoolMain question · in average | Aug 12–Aug 20 | 738 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 | — | −3.0 | A− | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
| Marquette University Law SchoolMain question | Aug 12–Aug 20 | 891 RV | 44 | 44 | Even | — | −8.0 | A− | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
| TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredMain question · in average | Aug 14–Aug 18 | 1,187 LV | 46.74 | 43.39 | D+3.4 | — | −4.6 | A− | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredMain question | Aug 14–Aug 18 | 1,434 RV | 43.24 | 41.21 | D+2 | — | −6.0 | A− | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| Platform Communications for Badger Battleground Poll | Aug 12–Aug 13 | 500 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | — | −4.0 | — | wpr.org ↗ |
| GBAO for Protect Our WisconsinD-sponsored | Jul 30–Aug 3 | 800 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | — | −5.0 | C | politico.com ↗ |
| RMG Research for Institute for Reforming Government, Napolitan News Service | Jul 20–Jul 24 | 800 RV | 46 | 43 | D+3 | — | −5.0 | B+ | reforminggovernment.org ↗ |
| TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredMain question · in average | Mar 13–Mar 19 | 1,168 LV | 42.34 | 40.84 | D+1.5 | — | −6.5 | A− | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredMain question | Mar 13–Mar 19 | 1,495 RV | 39.28 | 38.16 | D+1.1 | — | −6.9 | A− | tippinsights.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- David Crowley
- 83%
- Tom Tiffany
- 17%
- Projected margin
- D+5.5
The candidates
Milwaukee County Executive (2020–present) (previously withdrew, endorsed Rodriguez)Tom Tiffany (R)
U.S. representative for WI-7 (2020–present)
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Nonpartisan), 0.0%; Jamie Jo Carothers (Other party), 0.0%
Also on this ballot here
| Attorney General | D+9.3 |
| Secretary of State | D+5.0 |
| Treasurer | D+3.6 |
Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Crowley.