U.S. Senate in Tennessee
U.S. Senate · Tennessee
Bill Hagerty won re-election by 12.2 points over Marquita Bradshaw.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 5, 2026, 5:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Bradshaw compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 95 of 95 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Rutherford, +22.0 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 87 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUNDFor Hagerty | $275K | |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDFor Hagerty | $252.3K | |
| WINNING RIGHT PACFor Hagerty | $220K | |
| AMERICAN MISSIONFor Hagerty | $212.3K | |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTIONFor Hagerty | $79K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Hagerty ahead by 23.4. Hagerty won by 12.2: a 11.2-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Bradshaw ahead
- Poll with Hagerty ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bradshaw | Hagerty | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | Oct 24–Nov 2 | 716 LV | 37 | 57 | R+20 | R+18.3 | −7.8 | D | targoz.com ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research for Beacon CenterMain question | Aug 15–Aug 26 | 1,157 RV | 31 | 51 | R+20 | — | −7.8 | D | tennsight.com ↗ |
| Targoz Market Research for Beacon CenterMain question · in average | Aug 15–Aug 26 | 607 LV | 33 | 58 | R+25 | R+23.4 | −12.8 | D | tennsight.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 2, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Marquita Bradshaw
- <1%
- Bill Hagerty
- >99%
- Projected margin
- R+23.6
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. senator (2021–present)Marquita Bradshaw (D)
Staffing consultant and nominee for this seat in 2020 and candidate in 2024
Also on the ballot: Robert Jones (Independent), 0.5%; Tharon Chandler (Independent), 0.4%; Andrew Gerena (Independent), 0.3%; Catherine Barcel "Barcy" Whitson (Independent), 0.2%; Jeremy Dean Hearn (Independent), 0.2%; David Sutman, Jr. (Independent), 0.1%; Yoshi D. Matthews (Independent), 0.1%; James William Macon III (Independent), 0.1%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | R+2.5 |
Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Hagerty.