Called Nov 4Unofficial results

Tennessee Governor

Name: Tennessee Governor
Start: 2026-11-03
Location: Tennessee

Governor · Tennessee

Marsha Blackburn held the seat for Republicans, winning by 2.5 points over Jerri Green.

Marsha BlackburnRepublican · winner

45.5%955,298

Jerri GreenDemocrat

43.0%902,615

David HatleyIndependent

9.3%195,288

Lauren PinkstonIndependent

1.2%26,186

Dean BrewerIndependent

0.2%4,095

Misam AbidiIndependent

0.2%3,398

Ray BrownIndependent

0.1%2,869

Wendell JacksonIndependent

0.1%2,365

Eddie Lee MurphyIndependent

0.1%2,293

Robert C. VickIndependent

0.1%2,240

Charles Van MorganIndependent

0.1%1,317

L. Webb TaylorIndependent

0.1%1,118

Dave SeemanIndependent

0.0%870

Victor L. ScogginIndependent

0.0%817

Karl Knox SmithsonIndependent

0.0%494

91% of the expected vote counted · 2,101,263 votes

Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET

Where the race moved

Against the 2024 presidential vote

Every county, 2024 to 2026

Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Green compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 95 of 95 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Warren, +37.4 points.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

The seat's recent races

Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)

By county

CountyShareMarginShift

ShelbyD+38.7+13.3

DavidsonD+50.0+22.6

KnoxD+6.1+25.6

HamiltonD+10.1+23.2

WilliamsonR+14.0+18.4

RutherfordD+8.7+30.4

SumnerR+13.7+28.1

MontgomeryD+6.5+25.0

Show 87 more

WilsonR+12.3+27.8

SullivanR+27.6+27.4

BlountR+21.9+25.8

WashingtonR+10.1+29.4

MauryR+20.8+23.8

BradleyR+29.7+29.1

MadisonD+3.3+21.5

SevierR+33.6+27.5

CumberlandR+42.5+16.4

LoudonR+33.3+19.7

AndersonR+5.1+30.6

PutnamR+16.7+30.7

RobertsonR+21.0+29.8

GreeneR+37.4+28.4

RoaneR+26.0+28.5

FayetteR+26.5+15.9

TiptonR+28.9+23.9

JeffersonR+36.1+28.1

DicksonR+22.0+29.9

CarterR+27.2+36.0

CoffeeR+25.8+29.2

HawkinsR+41.4+27.4

HamblenR+23.2+35.7

McMinnR+33.9+30.4

CheathamR+15.0+30.9

MonroeR+38.4+28.5

GibsonR+21.7+30.2

BedfordR+24.5+33.5

FranklinR+29.1+24.1

LawrenceR+38.0+31.1

MarshallR+23.5+33.1

WarrenR+18.7+37.4

LincolnR+45.3+19.3

HenryR+29.6+25.7

CockeR+39.6+28.6

ClaiborneR+42.6+27.5

DyerR+34.7+27.1

WeakleyR+33.3+25.1

GilesR+33.3+21.7

CampbellR+39.7+29.9

MarionR+25.9+29.8

RheaR+38.7+28.2

ObionR+41.8+23.2

WhiteR+36.2+30.4

HardinR+52.8+18.2

McNairyR+42.7+25.7

CarrollR+34.2+27.3

HendersonR+40.8+27.1

HardemanR+1.5+22.7

GraingerR+43.0+30.6

HickmanR+34.8+26.3

FentressR+50.5+25.3

SmithR+34.7+30.3

LauderdaleR+11.3+25.7

MaconR+40.2+34.1

UnicoiR+33.0+29.0

DeKalbR+31.4+31.3

HumphreysR+26.2+29.9

JohnsonR+44.5+24.9

PolkR+39.5+28.6

MorganR+42.4+32.1

SequatchieR+42.2+24.1

UnionR+42.6+28.6

OvertonR+28.8+35.4

HaywoodD+22.3+21.9

BentonR+36.9+26.0

ChesterR+37.2+27.7

ScottR+44.7+35.1

StewartR+42.1+21.7

CannonR+33.3+32.8

WayneR+54.0+22.9

BledsoeR+41.0+29.5

LewisR+36.0+29.6

MeigsR+38.4+29.1

CrockettR+22.3+36.4

GrundyR+38.8+30.5

JacksonR+31.7+30.7

DecaturR+45.5+23.6

TrousdaleR+25.8+33.1

HoustonR+33.4+24.8

MooreR+42.3+26.6

PerryR+39.5+29.9

Van BurenR+30.9+36.3

ClayR+35.2+31.3

PickettR+34.3+31.8

HancockR+39.6+36.9

LakeR+28.3+26.6

Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

Polls against the result

The final average had Blackburn ahead by 15.7. Blackburn won by 2.5: a 13.2-point miss toward Republicans.

Poll with Green ahead
Poll with Blackburn ahead
Final polling average
Result

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Green	Blackburn	Margin	Adjusted	Miss vs result	Grade	Release
Targoz Market Research	Oct 24–Nov 2	718 LV	35	54	R+19	R+18.4	−16.5	D	targoz.com ↗
Spry Strategies	Oct 10–Oct 16	635 LV	32	43.5	R+11.5	R+15.7	−9.0	B−	spryresearch.com ↗
TargetSmart for The Progress Fund PACD-sponsored	Sep 9–Sep 12	600 LV	36	45	R+9	R+15.2	−6.5	B−	tnprogressfund.com ↗
Targoz Market Research for Beacon Centerfield: Green, Candidate, Blackburn	Aug 15–Aug 26	1,149 RV	33	46	R+13	—	−10.5	D	tennsight.com ↗
Targoz Market Research for Beacon Centerfield: Green, Candidate, Blackburn · in average	Aug 15–Aug 26	601 LV	34	55	R+21	R+19.5	−18.5	D	tennsight.com ↗
Targoz Market Research for Beacon Center	Apr 20–Apr 27	1,157 RV	27	51	R+24	R+26.4	−21.5	D	tennsight.com ↗
Quantus Insights	Aug 5–Aug 7	600 RV	28	49	R+21	R+22.2	−18.5	—	drive.google.com ↗

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).

Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 2, 2026

Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)

Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.

Jerri Green: 1%
Marsha Blackburn: 99%
Projected margin: R+15.7

How the forecast works →

The candidates

Marsha Blackburn (R)
U.S. senator (2019–present)Jerri Green (D)
Memphis city councilor from the 2nd district (2024–present)David Hatley (I)
Businessman

Also on the ballot: Lauren Pinkston (Independent), 1.2%; Dean Brewer (Independent), 0.2%; Misam Abidi (Independent), 0.2%; Ray Brown (Independent), 0.1%; Wendell Jackson (Independent), 0.1%; Eddie Lee Murphy (Independent), 0.1%; Robert C. Vick (Independent), 0.1%; Charles Van Morgan (Independent), 0.1%; L. Webb Taylor (Independent), 0.1%; Dave Seeman (Independent), 0.0%; Victor L. Scoggin (Independent), 0.0%; Karl Knox Smithson (Independent), 0.0%

Also on this ballot here

U.S. Senate

R+12.2

Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 5, 2026, 5:00 PM ET

Changes to this page

Nov 4 · Race called for Blackburn.