Wisconsin's 1st District
U.S. House · Wisconsin
Mitchell Berman flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 3.9 points over Bryan Steil.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Steil | $4.6M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Steil, against Berman | $2.2M | |
| FairshakeFor Steil | $1M | |
| AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PACFor Steil | $1M | |
| 314 Action FundAgainst Steil | $1M | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Berman | $960.4K | |
| AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC.For Steil | $529.1K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Steil, against Berman | $441.3K | |
| IN UNION USAFor Berman, against Steil | $321.7K | |
| Somos PACFor Berman | $299.2K | |
| Americans 4 Security PACAgainst Berman | $190K | |
| American Liberty Foundation PACAgainst Berman | $165K | |
| AB PACFor Berman | $124.9K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Steil ahead by 0.4. Berman won by 3.9: a 4.3-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Berman ahead
- Poll with Steil ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Berman | Steil | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 500 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | D+0.4 | −2.9 | C | x.com ↗ |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 495 LV | 48 | 48 | Even | R+1.8 | −3.9 | — | hub.nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| Impact Research for Mitchell Berman's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 6–Aug 9 | 400 LV | 48 | 49 | R+1 | R+0.8 | −4.9 | C | wispolitics.com ↗ |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives for AmericaR-sponsored | Mar 14–Mar 16 | 400 LV | 41 | 50 | R+9 | R+4.0 | −12.9 | B+ | punchbowl.news ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Mitchell Berman
- 60%
- Bryan Steil
- 40%
- Projected margin
- D+1.4
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Berman.