2026 election for Washington's 5th District
U.S. House · Washington
Michael Baumgartner (R) won re-election with 51.5% of the vote, defeating Carmela Conroy (D) by 3.4 points.
Top-two primary
Source: Washington Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
The seat over time
D − R margin in this seat's races around 2026
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| FIRE HOUSE PACAgainst Baumgartner | $396K | |
| Together for Working PeopleAgainst Baumgartner | $263.6K | |
| FIRE HOUSE PACAgainst Conroy | $95.8K | |
| MAGA INC.For Baumgartner, against Conroy | $51.8K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Baumgartner | $11.7K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Baumgartner ahead by 9.7. Baumgartner won by 3.4: a 6.3-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Conroy ahead
- Poll with Baumgartner ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Conroy | Baumgartner | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research for Contours Inc. | May 18–May 25 | 578 LV | 47 | 53 | R+6 | R+9.7 | −2.6 | — | tavernresearch.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times poll listsUpdated May 25, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Carmela Conroy
- 10%
- Michael Baumgartner
- 90%
- Projected margin
- R+7.7
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeCarmela Conroy (D)
Former chair of the Spokane County Democratic Party and runner-up for this district in 2024
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.3%