Utah's 4th District
U.S. House · Utah
Mike Kennedy won re-election by 14.9 points over Jonny Larsen.
Source: Utah Lieutenant Governor's Office unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Source: FEC campaign filingsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Polls against the result
The final average had Kennedy ahead by 11.6. Kennedy won by 14.9: a 3.3-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Larsen ahead
- Poll with Kennedy ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Larsen | Kennedy | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research for Utah Debate Comission | Sep 8–Sep 17 | 513 RV | 32.9 | 41.7 | R+8.8 | R+11.6 | +6.1 | — | utahdebatecommission.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Sep 17, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Jonny Larsen
- 1%
- Mike Kennedy
- 99%
- Projected margin
- R+20.3
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representative for the 3rd districtJonny Larsen (D)
U.S. Marine Corps veteran
Also on the ballot: Steven Burt (Independent), 4.3%; Taylor Wright (Libertarian), 3.2%