Pennsylvania's 1st District
U.S. House · Pennsylvania
Bob Harvie flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 5.5 points over Brian Fitzpatrick.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPFor Harvie, against Fitzpatrick | $8.5M | |
| Defending America PACAgainst Harvie | $1.5M | |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PACAgainst Fitzpatrick | $998.7K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Fitzpatrick, against Harvie | $561.7K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Harvie | $512.8K | |
| STRATEGIC MAJORITY PACFor Fitzpatrick, against Harvie | $470.6K | |
| RJC Victory FundAgainst Harvie | $383.5K | |
| EDF Action VotesFor Fitzpatrick | $263.8K | |
| PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.For Fitzpatrick | $212.5K | |
| AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC.For Fitzpatrick | $162.8K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Harvie | $100.9K |
Show 3 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Harvie ahead by 1.0. Harvie won by 5.5: a 4.5-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Harvie ahead
- Poll with Fitzpatrick ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Harvie | Fitzpatrick | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University for The Philadelphia Inquirer | Oct 16–Oct 22 | 400 LV | 48.26 | 45.83 | D+2.4 | D+2.1 | −3.1 | A | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Bob Harvie's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 1–Oct 8 | 1,032 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | R+2.4 | −5.5 | C | politico.com ↗ |
| Public Opinion Strategies for NRCC, Brian Fitzpatrick's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 11–Sep 14 | 400 RV | 42 | 51 | R+9 | R+1.7 | −14.5 | B | x.com ↗ |
| GQR for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Aug 19–Aug 23 | 400 LV | 48 | 49 | R+1 | R+2.3 | −6.5 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Bob Harvie's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 5–Aug 9 | 500 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 | R+6.1 | −9.5 | C | politicspa.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for Bob Harvie's campaignD-sponsored | Mar 19–Mar 22 | 400 LV | 42 | 48 | R+6 | R+7.6 | −11.5 | C | politicspa.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Bob Harvie's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 10–Oct 11 | 585 LV | 41 | 41 | Even | — | −5.5 | B+ | notus.org ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 22, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Bob Harvie
- 72%
- Brian Fitzpatrick
- 28%
- Projected margin
- D+3.4
The candidates
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Harvie.