Oklahoma's 5th District
U.S. House · Oklahoma
Stephanie Bice won re-election by 1.3 points over Jena Nelson.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| Government That Works PACFor Nelson | $125.7K | |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOMFor Bice | $36.3K | |
| American Petroleum InstituteFor Bice | $34.3K | |
| WFW ACTION FUND INCFor Bice | $20.2K | |
| ENERGY ENGAGED INC.For Bice | $2.4K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Bice ahead by 6.7. Bice won by 1.3: a 5.4-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Nelson ahead
- Poll with Bice ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Nelson | Bice | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO for Jena Nelson's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 500 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | R+6.7 | −3.7 | C | eu.oklahoman.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Sep 20, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Jena Nelson
- 6%
- Stephanie Bice
- 94%
- Projected margin
- R+9.6
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeJena Nelson (D)
Oklahoma Teacher of the Year (2020) and nominee for Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2022
Also on the ballot: Robert P. Henri (Independent), 1.5%; Austin Nieves (Independent), 0.8%
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Bice.