Minnesota's 1st District
U.S. House · Minnesota
Jake Johnson leads Brad Finstad by 0.10 points in the state's complete count, within recount range. The race is not called until the state certifies its results.
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| YOUR COMMUNITY PACAgainst Finstad | $2.8M | |
| HMPAgainst Finstad | $1.9M | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Johnson | $1.4M | |
| THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER PACAgainst Johnson | $1.2M | |
| American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees PEOPLEFor Johnson, against Finstad | $482.5K | |
| Defending Main Street SuperPAC Inc.Against Johnson | $464.2K | |
| Progressive Turnout ProjectFor Johnson | $318.1K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Finstad | $250.1K | |
| Battleground Alliance PACFor Johnson | $129.9K | |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOMFor Finstad | $127.7K | |
| TAKEACTION MN FEDERAL FUNDFor Johnson, against Finstad | $113.4K | |
| Conservatives for AmericaFor Finstad | $100K | |
| American Liberty Foundation PACFor Finstad | $59.2K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Johnson | $20.4K |
Show 6 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Johnson ahead by 0.1. Johnson leads by 0.1: the polls were right on.
- Poll with Johnson ahead
- Poll with Finstad ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Johnson | Finstad | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 13–Oct 14 | — LV | 43 | 43 | Even | R+1.3 | −0.1 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for ABC6 | Oct 4–Oct 12 | 565 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | D+2.1 | +1.9 | A | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| GBAO for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 18–Sep 21 | 500 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 | R+0.2 | +0.9 | C | x.com ↗ |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives for AmericaR-sponsored | Mar 12–Mar 14 | 400 LV | 42 | 52 | R+10 | R+4.5 | −10.1 | B+ | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for Jake Johnson's campaignD-sponsored | Feb 2–Feb 3 | 708 RV | 41 | 44 | R+3 | R+3.1 | −3.1 | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Jake Johnson
- 43%
- Brad Finstad
- 57%
- Projected margin
- R+1.1
The candidates
High school teacherBrad Finstad (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.1%