Illinois's 4th District
U.S. House · Illinois
Patty Garcia held the seat for Democrats, winning by 55.0 points over Lupe Castillo.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Other candidates' campaigns: Chris Getty $412.8K.
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. No FEC filings matched for Lupe Castillo.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Garcia ahead by 31.0. Garcia won by 55.0: a 24.0-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Garcia ahead
- Poll with Castillo ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Garcia | Castillo | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group for Independent Center | Jul 31–Aug 3 | 653 RV | 34 | 15 | D+19 | D+31.0 | −36.0 | C− | independentcentervoice.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Aug 3, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Patty Garcia
- >99%
- Lupe Castillo
- <1%
- Projected margin
- D+41.3
The candidates
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Garcia.