Iowa's 3rd District
U.S. House · Iowa
Sarah Trone Garriott flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 7.3 points over Zach Nunn.
Source: Iowa Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Nunn, against Garriott | $4.1M | |
| HMPAgainst Nunn | $2.7M | |
| Project 218For Garriott | $996.2K | |
| WITH HONOR FUND III, INC.For Nunn | $762.5K | |
| CFFE PACFor Garriott | $700.8K | |
| American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees PEOPLEAgainst Nunn | $604.5K | |
| VoteVetsAgainst Nunn | $360K | |
| Elect Democratic WomenAgainst Nunn | $349K | |
| NRDC Action VotesAgainst Nunn | $300K | |
| America PACAgainst Garriott | $274.1K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Nunn | $250.1K | |
| MAGA INC.Against Garriott | $51.2K |
Show 4 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Nunn ahead by 0.5. Garriott won by 7.3: a 7.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Garriott ahead
- Poll with Nunn ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Garriott | Nunn | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives for AmericaR-sponsored | Mar 12–Mar 14 | 400 LV | 42 | 48 | R+6 | R+0.5 | −13.3 | B+ | punchbowl.news ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Mar 14, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Sarah Trone Garriott
- 76%
- Zach Nunn
- 24%
- Projected margin
- D+4.5
The candidates
State senator from the 14th district (2021–present)Zach Nunn (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.2%