Florida's 27th District
U.S. House · Florida
María Elvira Salazar leads Eliott Rodriguez by 0.44 points in the state's complete count, within recount range. The race is not called until the state certifies its results.
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPFor Rodriguez, against Salazar | $2.3M | |
| AB PACFor Rodriguez | $373.8K | |
| WORKERS VOTEFor Rodriguez | $206.4K | |
| LATINO VOTE FOR AMERICA PACAgainst Rodriguez | $202K | |
| HMPAgainst Rodriguez | $186.2K | |
| SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education)For Rodriguez, against Salazar | $65.2K | |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action CommitteeFor Salazar | $53.8K | |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOMFor Salazar | $36.6K | |
| Building TogetherFor Rodriguez, against Salazar | $26.6K | |
| Cedar Key ProgressAgainst Salazar | $20K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Salazar | $16.2K | |
| WFW ACTION FUND INCFor Salazar | $15K | |
| MoveOn.org Political ActionFor Rodriguez | $10.1K | |
| EQUALITY FLORIDA ACTION INC.For Rodriguez | $7.5K |
Show 6 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Salazar ahead by 3.4. Salazar leads by 0.4: a 3.0-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Rodriguez ahead
- Poll with Salazar ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Rodriguez | Salazar | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 600 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | R+3.6 | −0.6 | A− | x.com ↗ |
| Bendixen & Amandi International for Eliott Rodriguez's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 25–Aug 30 | 600 LV | 45 | 45 | Even | R+2.8 | +0.4 | B− | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Sep 13, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Eliott Rodriguez
- 29%
- María Elvira Salazar
- 71%
- Projected margin
- R+3.8