Connecticut's 5th District
U.S. House · Connecticut
Jahana Hayes won re-election by 15.7 points over Chris Shea.
Fusion voting
Source: Connecticut Secretary of the State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| Pro-Choice Majority ActionAgainst Shea | $250K | |
| SEAL THE DEAL PACAgainst Hayes | $56.3K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Hayes ahead by 11.9. Hayes won by 15.7: a 3.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Hayes ahead
- Poll with Shea ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hayes | Shea | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. for Chris Shea's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 1 | 400 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+11.9 | −9.7 | A− | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Jahana Hayes
- 99%
- Chris Shea
- 1%
- Projected margin
- D+17.0
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeChris Shea (R)
Firefighter
Also on the ballot: Jonathan DeBarros (Other party), 0.0%