California's 48th District
U.S. House · California
Marni von Wilpert flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 18.8 points over Jim Desmond.
Top-two primary
Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Desmond | $4.4M | |
| Health Care Saves LivesFor Wilpert, against Desmond | $975K | |
| Project 218For Wilpert | $900K | |
| Equality PACFor Wilpert, against Desmond | $704K | |
| Serving CAAgainst Wilpert | $653.5K | |
| Elect Democratic WomenFor Wilpert, against Desmond | $504.2K | |
| 48Th Accountability ProjectAgainst Desmond | $336.7K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Desmond, against Wilpert | $329.9K | |
| Worker Power PACFor Wilpert | $150K | |
| Women VoteFor Wilpert | $139K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Desmond | $105.2K |
Show 3 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Wilpert ahead by 9.0. Wilpert won by 18.8: a 9.8-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Wilpert ahead
- Poll with Desmond ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Wilpert | Desmond | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | Oct 22–Oct 27 | 474 LV | 52 | 44 | D+8 | D+8.7 | −10.8 | — | thedemocracylab.com ↗ |
| Tarrance Group for Jim Desmond's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 17–Oct 20 | 410 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+9.0 | −15.8 | A+ | cdn.sanity.io ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for KGTV-TV (California), San Diego Union-Tribune | Oct 1–Oct 7 | 518 LV | 47 | 38 | D+9 | D+10.6 | −9.8 | A | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| SurveyUSA for KGTV-TV (California), San Diego Union-Tribune | Aug 27–Sep 1 | 522 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3 | D+4.3 | −15.8 | A | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for Marni von Wilpert's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 9–Jul 14 | 500 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | R+1.4 | −16.8 | B+ | hub.nationaljournal.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 27, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Marni von Wilpert
- 96%
- Jim Desmond
- 4%
- Projected margin
- D+10.3