California's 40th District
U.S. House · California
Ken Calvert won re-election by 7.9 points over Young Kim.
Top-two primary
Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Other candidates' campaigns: Young Kim $10.1M.
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
The polls
- Poll with D ahead
- Poll with Calvert ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | Calvert | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grassroots Targeting for California First FundR-sponsored | Sep 5–Sep 9 | 715 LV | — | 43 | — | — | — | — | politico.com ↗ |
| Public Opinion Strategies for Young Kim's campaignR-sponsored | Aug 17–Aug 20 | 400 LV | — | 34 | — | — | — | B | youngkimforcongress.com ↗ |
| American Viewpoint for California First FundR-sponsored | Jul 8–Jul 12 | — LV | — | 32 | — | — | — | A− | youngkimforcongress.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Sep 9, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
No Democrat was on the ballot, so the model gave the seat to Young Kim without simulating it.
How the forecast works →