California's 1st District
U.S. House · California
Mike McGuire flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 10.5 points over James Gallagher.
Top-two primary
Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| Protect ProgressFor McGuire | $372.1K | |
| National Nurses United for Patient ProtectionFor McGuire | $154.4K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had McGuire ahead by 15.8. McGuire won by 10.5: a 5.3-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with McGuire ahead
- Poll with Gallagher ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | McGuire | Gallagher | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | Oct 22–Oct 26 | 444 LV | 56 | 41 | D+15 | D+15.8 | +4.5 | — | thedemocracylab.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 26, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Mike McGuire
- 99%
- James Gallagher
- 1%
- Projected margin
- D+16.2