California's 22nd District
U.S. House · California
Randy Villegas flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 33.2 points over David Valadao.
Top-two primary
Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Valadao | $8.6M | |
| Giffords PACAgainst Valadao | $1.8M | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Valadao | $1.1M | |
| Working Families Party PACFor Villegas, against Valadao | $1M | |
| Health Care Saves LivesAgainst Valadao | $840.8K | |
| New Democrat MajorityAgainst Villegas | $750.9K | |
| The Governing Majority FundAgainst Villegas | $669.4K | |
| BDA PACAgainst Villegas | $600K | |
| American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees PEOPLEFor Villegas | $578.9K | |
| DMFI PACAgainst Villegas | $500K | |
| Project 218For Villegas | $462.3K | |
| Leaders We DeserveFor Villegas | $450.2K | |
| America PACFor Valadao | $300.3K |
Show 5 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Villegas ahead by 10.5. Villegas won by 33.2: a 22.7-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Villegas ahead
- Poll with Valadao ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Villegas | Valadao | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | Oct 22–Oct 28 | 356 LV | 54 | 44 | D+10 | D+10.6 | −23.2 | — | thedemocracylab.com ↗ |
| Tulchin Research for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Jun 15–Jun 21 | 800 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | D+2.8 | −29.2 | A− | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 28, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Randy Villegas
- 92%
- David Valadao
- 8%
- Projected margin
- D+9.7