California's 11th District
U.S. House · California
Scott Wiener held the seat for Democrats, winning by 8.1 points over Connie Chan.
Top-two primary
Source: California Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Other candidates' campaigns: Connie Chan $2.4M.
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
The polls
- Poll with Wiener ahead
- Poll with R ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Wiener | R | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | Oct 16–Oct 19 | 454 LV | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | thedemocracylab.com ↗ |
| Tavern Research for Jobs and Democracy PACD-sponsored | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 658 LV | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | politico.com ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for Connie Chan's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 14–Jul 19 | 500 LV | 45 | — | — | — | — | B+ | politico.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
No Republican was on the ballot, so the model gave the seat to Scott Wiener without simulating it.
How the forecast works →