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U.S. Senate in Virginia

U.S. Senate · Virginia

Mark Warner won re-election by 22.8 points over Bert Mizusawa.

Mark WarnerDemocrat · winner · incumbent
61.3%2,200,213
Bert MizusawaRepublican
38.5%1,380,601
Write-inOther party
0.3%9,533
3,590,347 votes

Source: Virginia Department of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET

Where the race moved

Against the 2024 presidential vote

Every county, 2024 to 2026

Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Warner compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 133 of 133 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Manassas City, +26.2 points.

R+90R+90R+45R+45EvenEvenD+45D+45D+90D+90Moved toward Democrats ↑↓ Moved toward RepublicansFairfaxVirginia Beach CityPrince WilliamLoudounChesterfieldHenrico2024 presidential margin →2026 margin →

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

The seat's recent races

EvenD+12.12020 SenateD+5.92024 Pres.D+22.82026 Senate

Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)

By county

CountyShareMarginShift
FairfaxD+52.4+17.7
Virginia Beach CityD+17.9+15.3
Prince WilliamD+42.9+25.0
LoudounD+38.0+21.9
ChesterfieldD+25.1+16.1
HenricoD+44.4+15.7
ArlingtonD+69.9+11.8
Chesapeake CityD+19.1+15.3
Show 125 more
Richmond CityD+77.1+11.2
Alexandria CityD+70.1+12.9
StaffordD+20.3+19.5
Norfolk CityD+56.9+15.5
SpotsylvaniaD+11.5+20.0
HanoverR+13.4+12.3
Newport News CityD+45.3+16.6
AlbemarleD+45.4+11.6
Hampton CityD+54.7+14.9
Suffolk CityD+31.1+15.2
RoanokeR+5.8+16.6
James CityD+17.5+11.3
FrederickR+9.1+19.2
BedfordR+41.2+9.0
RockinghamR+27.1+9.8
MontgomeryD+21.9+18.4
FauquierR+8.7+12.9
AugustaR+35.3+12.1
YorkD+5.9+12.0
Roanoke CityD+42.7+19.2
Portsmouth CityD+55.0+16.5
Lynchburg CityD+7.0+14.9
PittsylvaniaR+30.8+12.3
CampbellR+37.9+10.5
FranklinR+33.3+11.9
CulpeperR+8.6+16.3
WashingtonR+32.8+20.3
Isle of WightR+6.6+13.2
Charlottesville CityD+79.2+10.9
LouisaR+12.4+13.8
ShenandoahR+27.6+14.5
HenryR+17.3+15.5
GloucesterR+25.0+13.2
GoochlandR+6.7+11.7
OrangeR+8.3+16.2
BotetourtR+32.3+12.7
PowhatanR+33.2+10.7
WarrenR+22.4+15.0
Danville CityD+36.9+15.9
New KentR+19.0+12.8
AccomackR+1.0+12.3
AmherstR+23.0+13.4
HalifaxR+9.6+11.5
FluvannaD+9.4+15.7
CarolineD+8.9+17.7
Prince GeorgeR+7.4+13.9
TazewellR+51.6+17.1
Harrisonburg CityD+50.8+25.6
PulaskiR+25.9+18.6
Manassas CityD+41.0+26.3
MecklenburgR+11.1+9.7
King GeorgeR+9.4+15.5
CarrollR+49.0+14.1
DinwiddieR+7.7+15.4
Fairfax CityD+50.2+17.0
Staunton CityD+30.8+17.5
WytheR+41.3+18.1
WiseR+41.8+21.4
Fredericksburg CityD+48.7+17.1
RockbridgeR+21.7+11.9
SmythR+39.9+20.4
Petersburg CityD+82.8+10.2
GreeneR+8.8+15.8
Salem CityR+2.6+16.6
PageR+38.7+15.2
Winchester CityD+30.6+20.9
King WilliamR+24.9+15.6
RussellR+44.1+23.3
Waynesboro CityD+12.9+18.6
WestmorelandR+0.8+13.4
Falls Church CityD+70.0+8.4
AppomattoxR+42.3+8.5
ClarkeR+3.6+13.1
NelsonD+7.5+15.0
Prince EdwardD+12.0+14.6
SouthamptonR+13.5+11.9
FloydR+20.3+16.8
ScottR+51.4+18.9
PatrickR+47.2+13.1
NorthumberlandR+10.5+10.6
Williamsburg CityD+54.1+9.8
Hopewell CityD+33.7+20.0
MadisonR+24.0+11.0
GilesR+34.5+19.8
Colonial Heights CityR+14.0+18.4
AmeliaR+35.6+8.6
Poquoson CityR+32.7+12.9
BuckinghamR+8.5+15.0
LeeR+50.6+21.4
LancasterD+0.6+7.6
GraysonR+47.0+15.1
BrunswickD+19.1+10.5
NorthamptonD+18.9+12.7
MiddlesexR+14.6+12.7
AlleghanyR+28.2+19.8
BuchananR+44.3+26.2
NottowayR+10.3+12.0
Bristol CityR+15.7+23.9
DickensonR+31.3+30.8
EssexD+3.8+11.5
Radford CityD+21.3+20.8
CharlotteR+25.0+7.5
MathewsR+27.5+11.7
LunenburgR+11.2+11.6
Manassas Park CityD+51.5+31.7
CumberlandR+10.0+12.1
Martinsville CityD+36.1+13.5
RappahannockR+3.4+14.4
SussexD+14.4+9.9
SurryD+10.8+11.4
Charles CityD+21.0+10.3
King and QueenR+14.9+10.7
GreensvilleD+20.4+11.2
Franklin CityD+36.5+13.8
RichmondR+15.3+14.8
BlandR+50.0+19.6
CraigR+49.7+14.7
Lexington CityD+43.1+16.7
Buena Vista CityR+22.2+22.0
Galax CityR+24.8+19.1
BathR+38.5+15.2
Emporia CityD+41.2+10.2
Covington CityR+8.9+24.3
HighlandR+30.0+14.3
Norton CityR+18.4+25.1

Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.

Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET

Money in this race

Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.

Mark WarnerBert Mizusawa
$20.2M
Raised by the campaign
$1.1M
$19.6M
Spent by the campaign
$987.4K
$6.2M
Cash on hand
$154K
$184.5K
Outside spending for them
$0
$0
Outside spending against their opponent
$0
$20.4M
All money helping them
$1.1M

Top funders

Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.

FELLOWSHIP PACFor Warner$150K
Thomas Paine Society, L.L.C.For Warner$34.5K

Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.

Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET

Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)

Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.

Mark Warner
98%
Bert Mizusawa
2%
Projected margin
D+21.5
How the forecast works →

The candidates

Mark Warner (D)
Incumbent U.S. senator (2009–present)Bert Mizusawa (R)
Retired United States Army major general, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for VA-02 in 2010

Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.3%