U.S. Senate in Oklahoma
U.S. Senate · Oklahoma
Kevin Hern held the seat for Republicans, winning by 17.9 points over N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Thomas compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 77 of 77 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Canadian, +20.5 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 69 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| DEFENDING OUR VALUES PACFor Hern | $808.3K | |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSFor Hern | $735.6K | |
| AMERICAN MISSIONFor Hern | $473.5K | |
| FELLOWSHIP PACFor Hern | $300K | |
| HIGH PLAINS PACFor Hern | $165K | |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDFor Hern | $123.6K | |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTIONFor Hern | $34.9K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Hern ahead by 31.3. Hern won by 17.9: a 13.4-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Thomas ahead
- Poll with Hern ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Thomas | Hern | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hargrave | Aug 3–Aug 6 | 500 RV | 25 | 49 | R+24 | R+31.3 | −6.1 | B− | chs-inc.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Aug 6, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas
- <1%
- Kevin Hern
- >99%
- Projected margin
- R+27.1
The candidates
U.S. representative for OK-1 (2018–present)N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D)
Nurse
Also on the ballot: Curtis Stinnett (Independent), 1.3%; Ron Meinhardt (Independent), 1.3%; Sevier White (Libertarian), 0.9%
Also on this ballot here
| Governor | R+6.0 |
| Lieutenant Governor | R+15.6 |
| Attorney General | R+10.7 |
Results within this state. Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Hern.