South Dakota's at-large District
U.S. House · South Dakota
Marty Jackley held the seat for Republicans, winning by 28.0 points over Nikki Gronli.
Source: South Dakota Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every precinct, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a precinct, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Gronli compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 27 of 65 did. The largest shift among the bigger precincts: Hughes, −7.0 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 57 more
Bar: share of the district's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| SOUTH DAKOTA VALUES PACFor Jackley | $120.4K | |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.For Jackley | $65.6K | |
| SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOMFor Jackley | $36.4K | |
| A STRONG INNOVATION ECONOMY REQUIRES STRONG IP PROTECTIONFor Jackley | $25K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Jackley ahead by 27.5. Jackley won by 28.0: a 0.5-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Gronli ahead
- Poll with Jackley ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gronli | Jackley | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, South Dakota News Watch | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 500 LV | 31.8 | 59.6 | R+27.8 | R+28.3 | +0.2 | A | sdnewswatch.org ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for Nikki Gronli's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 26–Aug 30 | 500 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 | R+8.4 | +24.0 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Nikki Gronli
- <1%
- Marty Jackley
- >99%
- Projected margin
- R+22.9