2026 election for New York's 12th District
U.S. House · New York
Micah Lasher (D) won with 77.2% of the vote, defeating Caroline Shinkle (R) by 57.2 points.
Fusion voting
Source: New York State Board of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
The seat over time
D − R margin in this seat's races around 2026
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Other candidates' campaigns: Karen Ortiz $47.3K · Karen Ortiz $47.3K · Karen Ortiz $47.3K.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| Stand for New York PACFor Lasher | $10.8M | |
| Nuestro PACAgainst Lasher | $3M |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Micah Lasher
- >99%
- Caroline Shinkle
- <1%
- Projected margin
- D+71.7
The candidates
State assemblymember from the 69th district (2025–present) and candidate for New York's 31st State Senate district in 2016Caroline Shinkle (R)
Lawyer
Also on the ballot: Karen Ortiz (Other party), 1.4%; Karen Ortiz (Other party), 1.2%; Karen Ortiz (Other party), 0.3%