North Carolina's 11th District
U.S. House · North Carolina
Jamie Ager flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 15.8 points over Jennifer Balkcom.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Against Ager | $5M | |
| HMPAgainst Balkcom | $3.7M | |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PACAgainst Balkcom | $2.4M | |
| EDF Action VotesAgainst Balkcom | $746.2K | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Balkcom, against Ager | $736.1K | |
| CFFE PACFor Ager | $532.7K | |
| Project 218For Ager | $438.8K | |
| CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.For Balkcom | $399.3K | |
| WelcomePACFor Ager | $399K | |
| SD 2026Against Balkcom | $370K | |
| LCV Victory FundAgainst Balkcom | $362.9K |
Show 3 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Ager ahead by 13.9. Ager won by 15.8: a 1.9-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Ager ahead
- Poll with Balkcom ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ager | Balkcom | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 388 LV | 56 | 43 | D+13 | D+13.9 | −2.8 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Jamie Ager
- 75%
- Jennifer Balkcom
- 25%
- Projected margin
- D+5.1
The candidates
Farmer and grandson of former U.S. representative Jamie ClarkeJennifer Balkcom (R)
State representative from the 117th district (2023–present) (previously declined, endorsed Moffitt)
Also on the ballot: Travis Groo (Libertarian), 1.6%