Missouri's 2nd District
U.S. House · Missouri
Fred Wellman flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 4.9 points over Ann Wagner.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 4, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| VoteVetsFor Wellman, against Wagner | $312.4K | |
| PROTECT OUR FAMILY VALUES ACTIONAgainst Wellman | $220.1K | |
| AB PACFor Wellman | $59.3K | |
| WFW ACTION FUND INCFor Wagner | $18K | |
| Battleground Alliance PACFor Wellman | $2K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Wellman ahead by 1.7. Wellman won by 4.9: a 3.2-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Wellman ahead
- Poll with Wagner ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Wellman | Wagner | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 31–Nov 1 | 413 LV | 49.5 | 48.7 | D+0.8 | D+1.4 | −4.1 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Oct 19–Oct 20 | — LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | R+0.3 | −3.9 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 401 LV | 51 | 46 | D+5 | D+5.9 | +0.1 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Remington | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 565 LV | 42 | 43 | R+1 | D+1.8 | −5.9 | C+ | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Nov 1, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Fred Wellman
- 54%
- Ann Wagner
- 46%
- Projected margin
- D+0.6
The candidates
Podcast hostAnn Wagner (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative
Also on the ballot: Brandon Coulter Daugherty (Libertarian), 2.6%
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Wellman.