Michigan's 7th District
U.S. House · Michigan
William Lawrence flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 3.3 points over Tom Barrett.
Source: civicAPI unofficial results and race callsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| HMPAgainst Barrett | $13.6M | |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.Against Lawrence | $7.2M | |
| LCV Victory FundFor Lawrence, against Barrett | $1.2M | |
| Rolling Sea Action FundAgainst Lawrence | $1M | |
| Crush MAGA PACAgainst Lawrence | $909.2K | |
| TOMORROW TOGETHERAgainst Barrett | $896.3K | |
| Working Families Party PACFor Lawrence, against Barrett | $866.6K | |
| National Nurses United for Patient ProtectionFor Lawrence | $800K | |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionFor Barrett | $772.4K | |
| Club for Growth ActionAgainst Lawrence | $597.5K | |
| MICHIGAN SUNRISE PACFor Lawrence | $496.6K | |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC.For Barrett | $455.2K | |
| AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC.For Barrett | $358.7K | |
| NRDC Action VotesAgainst Barrett | $300K |
Show 6 more
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money. The FEC lists only each candidate's largest spenders; totals count every spender.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Lawrence ahead by 8.7. Lawrence won by 3.3: a 5.4-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Lawrence ahead
- Poll with Barrett ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Lawrence | Barrett | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 314 LV | 53 | 45 | D+8 | D+8.9 | +4.7 | A+ | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Global Strategy Group for House Majority PACD-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | — LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | D+0.5 | −1.3 | C | thehousemajoritypac.com ↗ |
| Data for Progress for William Lawrence's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 24–Jun 30 | 772 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | D+0.4 | −1.3 | B | semafor.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 14, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- William Lawrence
- 90%
- Tom Barrett
- 10%
- Projected margin
- D+7.2
The candidates
Co-founder of Sunrise MovementTom Barrett (R)
Incumbent U.S. representative (2025–present)
Also on the ballot: Shane Dedrick (Green), 1.2%; Write-in (Nonpartisan), 0.1%
Changes to this page
- · Race called for Lawrence.