South Dakota Governor
Governor · South Dakota
Larry Rhoden won re-election by 27.0 points over Dan Ahlers.
Source: South Dakota Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
Every county, 2024 to 2026
Each dot is a county, sized by votes cast and colored by who carried it in 2026. Dots above the line moved toward Ahlers compared with the 2024 presidential vote; 30 of 65 did. The largest shift among the bigger counties: Hughes, −7.5 points.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
By county
Show 57 more
Bar: share of the state's vote. Shift: change in margin from the 2024 presidential vote, + toward Democrats.
Source: civicAPI county results (unofficial); 2024 president: MEDSL precinct returnsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Polls against the result
The final average had Rhoden ahead by 18.6. Rhoden won by 27.0: a 8.4-point miss toward Democrats.
- Poll with Ahlers ahead
- Poll with Rhoden ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ahlers | Rhoden | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD-sponsored | Oct 22–Oct 26 | 448 LV | 39 | 48 | R+9 | R+18.1 | +18.0 | B− | concordpublicopinionpartners.org ↗ |
| Emerson College for KELO-TV | Oct 19–Oct 21 | 803 LV | 40.5 | 59.5 | R+19 | R+18.3 | +8.0 | A+ | keloland.com ↗ |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, South Dakota News Watch | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 500 LV | 35.6 | 56.2 | R+20.6 | R+20.3 | +6.4 | A | sdnewswatch.org ↗ |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 400 LV | 38 | 48 | R+10 | R+19.2 | +17.0 | B− | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Lake Research Partners for Nikki Gronli's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 26–Aug 30 | 500 LV | 44 | 51 | R+7 | R+11.4 | +20.0 | B+ | x.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 26, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Dan Ahlers
- <1%
- Larry Rhoden
- >99%
- Projected margin
- R+17.9
The candidates
Also on this ballot here
| U.S. Senate | R+21.0 |
| Attorney General | Unopposed |
| Secretary of State | R+22.3 |
| Treasurer | R+24.9 |
| Auditor | R+25.1 |
Results within this state. Source: Results and race calls: South Dakota Secretary of State (unofficial)Updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET