Florida Senate District 38
Florida State Senate · Florida
Alexis Maria Calatayud won re-election by 0.8 points over Richard Lamondin Jr..
Staggered Senate
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Campaign money: Florida Division of Elections, through Oct 29, 2026.
Source: Florida Division of Elections campaign filingsUpdated Oct 29, 2026
Polls against the result
The final average had Calatayud ahead by 2.2. Calatayud won by 0.8: a 1.4-point miss toward Republicans.
- Poll with Lamondin ahead
- Poll with Calatayud ahead
- Final polling average
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Lamondin | Calatayud | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchD-sponsored | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 400 LV | 40 | 40 | Even | R+2.1 | +0.8 | C | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Impact ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 1–Jul 31 | — V | 36 | 43 | R+7 | R+10.3 | −6.2 | C | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via The New York Times and Wikipedia poll listsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Richard Lamondin Jr.
- 42%
- Alexis Maria Calatayud
- 58%
- Projected margin
- R+1.4
The candidates
Incumbent, Florida State Senate, first elected 2022Richard Lamondin Jr. (D)
Also on the ballot: Jeffrey Doc Solomon (Nonpartisan), 1.8%