2022Final resultsSpecial election
2022 special election for New York's 19th District
U.S. House · New York
Pat Ryan (D) won with 51.5% of the vote, defeating Marc Molinaro (R) by 2.9 points.
Pat RyanDemocrat · winner
51.5%67,996
Marc MolinaroRepublican
48.5%64,159
132,155 votes
Source: Federal Election CommissionUpdated Oct 3, 2026, 3:20 AM ET
The seat over time
D − R margin in this seat's races around 2022
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Polls against the result
- Poll with Ryan ahead
- Poll with Molinaro ahead
- Result
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ryan | Molinaro | Margin | Adjusted | Miss vs result | Grade | Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | Aug 19 | 1,222 | 45 | 53 | R+8 | — | −10.9 | B | Wikipedia |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics DepartmentD-sponsored | Aug 7 | 480 | 43 | 46 | R+3 | — | −5.9 | B | Wikipedia |
| American Pulse Research & PollingR-sponsored | Jul 27 | 407 | 39.7 | 49.5 | R+9.8 | — | −12.7 | C | Wikipedia |
| Public Policy PollingD-sponsored | Jun 29 | 581 | 40 | 43 | R+3 | — | −5.9 | B+ | Wikipedia |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect and likely-voter screens. Miss: the poll's margin minus the result; + means the poll leaned Democratic. Grade: the pollster's accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (pollster ratings).
Source: Each poll's release, via FiveThirtyEight poll listsUpdated Aug 19, 2022