99chambers
Still countingUnofficial results

Oregon House District 21

Oregon House of Representatives · Oregon

Michael Welsh leads Kevin L Mannix by 7.9 points. The race has not been called.

Cross-party nominationsTwo-thirds quorum

Michael WelshDemocrat · leading
53.9%9,737
Kevin L MannixRepublican · incumbent
46.0%8,305
Write-inOther party
0.2%28
18,070 votes

Source: Oregon Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET

Where the race moved

Against the 2024 presidential vote

The seat's recent races

EvenR+5.82022 HouseR+3.82024 HouseD+5.42024 Pres.D+7.92026 House

Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)

Money in this race

Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.

Michael WelshKevin L Mannix
$501.4K
Raised by the campaign
$764.6K
$34.4K
Spent by the campaign
$631.2K

Campaign money: Oregon Secretary of State (ORESTAR), through Oct 9, 2026; Oregon Secretary of State (ORESTAR), through Oct 13, 2026.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State (ORESTAR) campaign filingsUpdated Oct 9, 2026

Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)

Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.

Michael Welsh
67%
Kevin L Mannix
33%
Projected margin
D+3.5
How the forecast works →

The candidates

Michael Welsh (D)Kevin L Mannix (R)
Incumbent, Oregon House of Representatives, first elected 1990

Also on the ballot: Write-in (Other party), 0.2%