Texas's 31st District
U.S. House · Texas
John Carter won re-election by 8.9 points over Justin Early.
Source: Texas Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two sides on one scale: their campaigns, and outside groups spending for them or against their opponent.
Top funders
Outside groups and direct contributors, ranked by what they put in; the color shows which candidate it helps.
| CONSERVATIVE FUTURE FUNDFor Carter | $55K | |
| NRA VICTORY FUND, INC.For Carter | $8K |
Campaign money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026. Outside spending: independent expenditures by super PACs, parties and other groups, primary and general, as reported to the FEC through Nov 1, 2026, updated Nov 3, 2026. It leaves out spending not reported as independent expenditures (most issue ads and much dark money), so it understates all outside money.
Source: FEC campaign filings; FEC independent expendituresUpdated Nov 3, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Justin Early
- 4%
- John Carter
- 96%
- Projected margin
- R+12.8
The candidates
Incumbent U.S. representativeJustin Early (D)
Cybersecurity architect
Also on the ballot: Greg Stoker (Green), 1.4%